surprise · reaction
feedback landing outside a model's predicted range. Measures the model, not the event.
Examples
- The 2008 financial crisis crashed models that priced U.S. housing defaults as near-impossible. economics
- Voyager 1 detected plasma waves beyond 120 AU, where models predicted solar wind dominance. spacephysics
- AlphaGo’s move 37 against Lee Sedol had a 1 in 10,000 prior probability in expert forecasting models. computing
Emergence
through: Information returns from a change, crosses the boundary of a model's expected range, and is measured as deviation, revealing the model's limits rather than the event's nature.
- model measurement via deviation
- unexpected feedback detection
- range boundary transgression
Chain to foundations
- surpriseL15
- feedbackL14
- informationL6
- differenceL1
- patternL0
- marksL5
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- partL1
- changeL1
- patternL0 (shown above)
- surfaceL4
- patternL0 (shown above)
- differenceL1
- sendL8
- sourceL2
- changeL1 (shown above)
- backL13
- sideL3
- partL1 (shown above)
- boundaryL2 (shown above)
- relevanceL12
- parameterL4
- driftL11
- parameterL4 (shown above)
- changeL1 (shown above)
- goL3
- makeL4 (shown above)
- nothingL10
- noneL9
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- amountL8
- offL2
- spaceL0 (shown above)
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- noneL9
- wayL9
- spaceL0 (shown above)
- linksL8
- partL1 (shown above)
- connectsL7
- flowL3
- interactionL2 (shown above)
- persistL1 (shown above)
- structureL2 (shown above)
- broughtL6
- happenL2
- wallL10
- windowL7
- parameterL4 (shown above)
- boundaryL2 (shown above)
- changeL1 (shown above)
- motionL2 (shown above)
- occursL2
- informationL6
- modelL9
- windowL7 (shown above)
- parameterL4 (shown above)
- boundaryL2 (shown above)
- eventL3
- landL10
- measureL13
- measurementL12
- regularityL10
- quantityL7 (shown above)
- spaceL0 (shown above)
- sizeL2 (shown above)
- applicationL10
- useL6
- purposeL9
- goalL6
- meaningL8
- informationL6 (shown above)
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- stateL2 (shown above)
- knowledgeL7
- informationL6 (shown above)
- peopleL6
- othersL2 (shown above)
- setsL3 (shown above)
- persistL1 (shown above)
- distinctL3 (shown above)
- entitiesL4 (shown above)
- interactingL4
- interactionL2 (shown above)
- touchL3 (shown above)
- groupsL5
- timeL0 (shown above)
- patternL0 (shown above)
- processL4
- specificL3
- justL2
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- patternL0 (shown above)
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- othersL2 (shown above)
- justL2
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- processL4 (shown above)
- propertyL3
- stateL2 (shown above)
- differenceL1 (shown above)
- applyingL8
- patternL0 (shown above)
- recordedL11
- registerL10
- saveL6
- informationL6 (shown above)
- recordsL11
- regularL1
- useL6 (shown above)
- outsideL6 (shown above)
- rangeL3 (shown above)
- feedbackL14
Neighborhood
Concepts that depend on this one above; what it is built from below.
Relations
| contrasts-with | drift.aimless | surprise arises when drift exceeds model window |
| contrasts-with | maintenance.upkeep | maintenance prevents surprise by containing drift |
| is-a | expectation.predicted | surprise is unmet expectation |