{
  "id": "deterrence.modeled-wall",
  "term": "deterrence",
  "sense": "modeled-wall",
  "pos": "noun",
  "status": "published",
  "level": 16,
  "domain": "agency",
  "style": "window",
  "definition": "Power whose wall is in the model others hold: they read its reach as real, so they stop before the wall and the reach is never used.",
  "folk_gloss": null,
  "emergence": {
    "components": [
      "power.over",
      "reach.action",
      "model.representation",
      "wall.range-end",
      "set.fix",
      "others.distinct-entities",
      "hold.physical",
      "read.information",
      "real.actual",
      "stop.action",
      "time.dimension",
      "never.temporal",
      "use.application"
    ],
    "interaction": "The reach is real and others' models hold it as it is, so they set their own walls short of it and the power never has to act. Because the wall lives in their model, it must be kept there by showing the reach again and again; a model left unfed drifts toward doubt.",
    "novel_properties": [
      "a wall that stands in another's model, not on the ground",
      "power that works exactly while it is not used",
      "maintenance done on someone else's model"
    ]
  },
  "examples": [
    {
      "text": "During the Cold War, nuclear deterrence rested on each side believing the other could still strike back after being attacked, which is why both kept submarine forces hard to find.",
      "domain": "politics"
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "id": "paper-tiger.untested",
      "type": "contrasts-with",
      "note": "OTHERS-READ accurate vs over: deterrence is read as the reach it has, a paper tiger as a reach it lacks"
    },
    {
      "id": "reputation.social-model",
      "type": "contrasts-with",
      "note": "reputation is any model others hold; deterrence is that model used as a wall on them"
    },
    {
      "id": "sandbagging.understated",
      "type": "contrasts-with",
      "note": "deterrence shows the reach so others' models set walls; sandbagging hides it so they set none"
    }
  ],
  "used_by": [],
  "forms": [
    "deter",
    "deterred",
    "deterrence",
    "deterrent",
    "deterrents",
    "deterring",
    "deters"
  ],
  "closed": true,
  "provenance": {
    "author": "claude-opus-5-5:hand-curated",
    "date": "2026-09-28",
    "confidence": 0.85,
    "sources": [
      "schema/power-agency-phase.md"
    ]
  },
  "canonical": "https://emergencemachine.com/tools/lexicon/what-is-the-meaning-of-deterrence.modeled-wall"
}